1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	252752	Genotype: A Mendelian Genetics Game	Current	1,034	7.66	6.28	2.8
			Estimated	600	7.63	6.03	2.8

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
Gregor Mendel is the 19th Century Augustinian Friar credited with the discovery of modern genetics. In Genotype, you play as his assistants, competing to collect experimental data on pea plants by trying to control how the plants inherit key Traits from their parents: seed shape, flower color, stem color, and plant height. The observable Traits of a Pea Plant (its Phenotype) are determined by its genetic makeup (its Genotype). The relationship between Genotype and Phenotype and the nature of genetic inheritance are at the heart of Genotype: A Mendelian Genetics Game. During the game, players get Pea Plant Cards which show a set of Phenotype Traits they hope to produce and collect (such as pink flowers and tall height) in order to score points. Each round, Dice are rolled to represent Plant breeding, which may result in the Traits players are looking for. After the Dice Roll, players take turns drafting Dice towards completing their Pea Plant Cards or advancing their Research. The Traits produced during the Dice Roll come through the science of Punnett Squares, which show how the parent genes combine, one from each parent plant. By changing the genes of these parent plants, players can influence the likelihood of rolling the Traits they need. The completion of Pea Plant Cards via the Dice Draft is the main way players score points. Each round consists of 3 phases: Worker Placement, Dice Drafting, and Upgrades. 1) During Worker Placement, players take actions to get more Plant Cards, change the genes of a parent plant, Garden, Research, stake Phenotype claims, gather new Tools, or even position themselves ahead of other players for the Dice Drafting Phase in a couple of ways. 2) Dice Drafting features a couple of interest steps, including the possibility to get first pick of dice, but only for one type of Trait (like plant height), or the possibility to get a pick of any dice, but only after those first picks have happened. De Novo Mutation Dice allow players to change the Trait of other Dice or gain additional Research. 3) The Upgrades phase lets players spend their Research to gain upgrades that let them work on more Plant Cards, draft more Dice each round, or gain additional Workers to be used during the Worker Placement Phase of each round. Players work to match their Pea Plant Cards to the outcome of the Dice Draft and complete the cards for points. If they've placed a Phenotype marker, they will earn bonus points for every completed card that matches their claim. At the end of 5 rounds, the player with the most points wins. -description from designer

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/252752

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Genotype: A Mendelian Genetics Game? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Genotype: A Mendelian Genetics Game. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Genotype: A Mendelian Genetics Game. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	252752	Genotype: A Mendelian Genetics Game	1.00	6.28	7.66	2.80	1,034
1	2018	232666	Robin Hood and the Merry Men	0.89	6.07	6.83	3.70	1,575
2	2016	199881	Space Cantina	0.87	5.66	7.69	2.60	179
3	2015	171669	Discoveries: The Journals of Lewis & Clark	0.87	6.62	7.06	2.36	4,661
4	2015	172381	My Village	0.86	6.36	6.95	3.10	2,644
5	2016	189067	Cavern Tavern	0.86	6.01	6.90	2.42	1,129
6	2018	242191	Tierra y Libertad: The Mexican Revolution Game (Second Edition)	0.86	5.53	7.32	2.75	45
7	2018	218293	Rise to Nobility	0.85	6.24	7.00	3.28	1,857
8	2017	169215	Peak Oil	0.85	5.74	6.58	3.00	507
9	2008	34635	Stone Age	0.85	7.43	7.55	2.47	48,172
10	2020	301880	Raiders of Scythia	0.84	6.96	7.89	2.67	2,997
11	2019	231624	Exploriana	0.84	5.62	6.93	1.57	170
12	2017	172278	Ether Wars	0.84	5.54	6.38	3.00	85
13	2019	259298	The Ancient World (Second Edition)	0.83	6.29	7.60	2.80	1,071
14	2014	147253	The Ancient World	0.83	6.31	7.00	2.72	2,098
15	2020	233262	Tidal Blades: Heroes of the Reef	0.83	6.57	7.68	2.89	1,932
16	2014	137031	Ancient Terrible Things	0.83	6.13	6.77	2.05	1,878
17	2019	266524	PARKS	0.82	7.47	7.77	2.15	14,957
18	2017	217949	A Column of Fire	0.82	5.81	6.52	2.39	819
19	2015	181687	The Pursuit of Happiness	0.82	6.72	7.20	2.47	4,654
20	2010	73439	Troyes	0.82	7.55	7.74	3.46	20,747
21	2019	253087	Shadowrun: Sprawl Ops	0.81	5.61	6.59	2.60	250
22	2020	275996	Shaolia: Warring States	0.81	5.76	7.29	2.43	347
23	2009	58764	Tierra y Libertad, el juego revolucionario	0.81	5.52	6.82	2.75	30
24	2014	157322	Dice Brewing	0.80	5.63	6.11	2.42	600
25	2019	252877	Wreck Raiders	0.80	6.15	7.49	2.52	940

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Genotype: A Mendelian Genetics Game while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	252752	Genotype: A Mendelian Genetics Game	6.28	1.00	6.28	7.66	2.80	1,034
1	2008	34635	Stone Age	6.33	0.85	7.43	7.55	2.47	48,172
2	2010	73439	Troyes	6.16	0.82	7.55	7.74	3.46	20,747
3	2019	266524	PARKS	6.10	0.82	7.47	7.77	2.15	14,957
4	2018	199792	Everdell	6.05	0.77	7.88	8.09	2.81	32,930
5	2015	183394	Viticulture Essential Edition	5.91	0.75	7.89	8.05	2.89	37,107
6	2018	236457	Architects of the West Kingdom	5.87	0.77	7.58	7.80	2.76	21,987
7	2020	301880	Raiders of Scythia	5.87	0.84	6.96	7.89	2.67	2,997
8	2015	170042	Raiders of the North Sea	5.82	0.77	7.54	7.77	2.54	19,249
9	2015	171669	Discoveries: The Journals of Lewis & Clark	5.74	0.87	6.62	7.06	2.36	4,661
10	2019	266192	Wingspan	5.71	0.72	7.94	8.10	2.45	61,562
11	2018	250458	Gùgōng	5.49	0.77	7.09	7.49	3.10	7,374
12	2015	172381	My Village	5.49	0.86	6.36	6.95	3.10	2,644
13	2015	181687	The Pursuit of Happiness	5.49	0.82	6.72	7.20	2.47	4,654
14	2018	231733	Obsession	5.48	0.74	7.41	8.35	3.15	3,968
15	2013	127060	Bora Bora	5.46	0.75	7.23	7.57	3.74	9,512
16	2020	227224	The Red Cathedral	5.45	0.76	7.19	7.83	2.80	5,147
17	2019	266810	Paladins of the West Kingdom	5.43	0.71	7.67	8.03	3.70	12,278
18	2020	233262	Tidal Blades: Heroes of the Reef	5.43	0.83	6.57	7.68	2.89	1,932
19	2015	172287	Champions of Midgard	5.43	0.73	7.48	7.76	2.60	15,096
20	2018	232666	Robin Hood and the Merry Men	5.42	0.89	6.07	6.83	3.70	1,575
21	2010	48726	Alien Frontiers	5.33	0.74	7.17	7.39	2.57	14,601
22	2018	218293	Rise to Nobility	5.33	0.85	6.24	7.00	3.28	1,857
23	2017	197376	Charterstone	5.25	0.75	7.02	7.29	2.84	13,158
24	2016	169426	Roll Player	5.25	0.72	7.28	7.50	2.42	16,563
25	2014	147253	The Ancient World	5.23	0.83	6.31	7.00	2.72	2,098

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	252752	Genotype: A Mendelian Genetics Game	Genius Games	John Coveyou	Tomasz Bogusz	Dice	Components: Dice with Icons	Contracts
			CrowD Games	Paul Salomon	Amelia Sales	Educational	Crowdfunding: Kickstarter	Dice Rolling
			Happy meeple games	Ian Zang			Series: Science Games (Genius Games)	Market
			One Moment Games				Theme: Biology	Open Drafting
			Schwerkraft-Verlag				Theme: Gardening	Set Collection
							Theme: Genealogy / Heredity	Simulation
							Theme: Science	Solo / Solitaire Game
								Tech Trees / Tech Tracks
								Worker Placement

Individual Game Analysis